Range Breakout: definition and measured success rate

Data as of 31.07.2026 · back-test since 07/2019

A range breakout occurs when price closes above a resistance level that has capped it for weeks or months. Leaving a well-tested range signals that buyers have absorbed the supply that repeatedly stopped previous advances. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 53 of 100 comparable cases (39,633 occurrences).

Schematic chart of the range breakout pattern

How does a range breakout form?

Price trades sideways between support and resistance while buyers and sellers are balanced. Each failed attempt at the top makes the level better tested. When price finally closes above it — ideally on clearly higher volume — the balance has tipped, and former resistance often becomes support.

How reliable is the range breakout?

In chartval's historical back-test across 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the range breakout reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 53 of 100 cases (39,633 occurrences evaluated since 07/2019; data as of 31.07.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.

All market phases53 of 100 · 39,633 cases

In an uptrend54 of 100 · 15,528 cases

In a downtrend53 of 100 · 3,397 cases

In a sideways market54 of 100 · 20,708 cases

Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.

How chartval detects the pattern

chartval scans for fresh closes above the highest level of the past three, six and twelve months, checks volume confirmation and how far price has already run, and states entry, target and invalidation for each detection. chartval scans 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.

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Note: All content on chartval is technical-analysis information, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading securities and crypto assets involves risk up to total loss. Past pattern statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.