Inverse Head and Shoulders: definition and measured success rate

Data as of 16.09.2026 · back-test since 04/2020

An inverse head and shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern made of three lows: a deepest middle low (the head) framed by two shallower lows (the shoulders). A close above the neckline connecting the interim highs completes the pattern. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 49 of 100 comparable cases (6,479 occurrences).

Schematic chart of the inverse head and shoulders pattern

How does a inverse head and shoulders form?

A downtrend produces a new deepest low, but the next decline already stops higher: sellers fail to reach the previous extreme. Each recovery stalls near the same neckline. When that line finally breaks, a long bottoming process resolves upward with unusually well-defined risk levels.

How reliable is the inverse head and shoulders?

In chartval's historical back-test across 273 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the inverse head and shoulders reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 49 of 100 cases (6,479 occurrences evaluated since 04/2020; data as of 16.09.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.

All market phases49 of 100 · 6,479 cases

In an uptrend46 of 100 · 540 cases

In a downtrend50 of 100 · 320 cases

In a sideways market49 of 100 · 5,619 cases

Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.

How chartval detects the pattern

chartval builds the pattern from confirmed pivots, requires the head to be the clear extreme and the shoulders to be roughly symmetric, and confirms only on a fresh neckline break. chartval scans 273 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.

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Note: All content on chartval is technical-analysis information, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading securities and crypto assets involves risk up to total loss. Past pattern statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.