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Head and Shoulders: definition and measured success rate
Data as of 30.10.2026 · back-test since 02/2021
A head and shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern made of three highs: a highest middle peak (the head) framed by two lower peaks (the shoulders). A close below the neckline connecting the interim lows completes the pattern. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 42 of 100 comparable cases (6,995 occurrences).
How does a head and shoulders form?
An uptrend prints its final extreme at the head, but the next advance already fails at a lower level. Buyers defend the neckline several times. When it breaks, a long topping process resolves downward, one of the most-studied reversal structures in technical analysis.
How reliable is the head and shoulders?
In chartval's historical back-test across 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the head and shoulders reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 42 of 100 cases (6,995 occurrences evaluated since 02/2021; data as of 30.10.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.
How chartval detects the pattern
chartval builds the pattern from confirmed pivots, requires the head to be the clear extreme and the shoulders to be roughly symmetric, and confirms only on a fresh neckline break. chartval scans 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.
See where this pattern is forming right now
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