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Golden Cross: definition and measured success rate
Data as of 31.07.2026 · back-test since 07/2020
A golden cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average (typically the 50-day) crosses above a longer-term moving average (typically the 200-day). It marks the point where recent momentum overtakes the long-term trend and is read as the start of a broader uptrend. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 56 of 100 comparable cases (1,027 occurrences).
How does a golden cross form?
After a downtrend or long consolidation, recent prices begin rising faster than the long-term average. The 50-day average, which reacts more quickly, catches up with and crosses the 200-day average. The cross itself is a lagging event; its value is confirmation that a trend change has already been underway.
How reliable is the golden cross?
In chartval's historical back-test across 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the golden cross reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 56 of 100 cases (1,027 occurrences evaluated since 07/2020; data as of 31.07.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.
How chartval detects the pattern
chartval flags a golden cross when the 50-period average closes above the 200-period average with a fresh crossover, and grades the signal by the gap between the averages and the trend context. chartval scans 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.
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