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Bullish Bollinger Squeeze: definition and measured success rate

Data as of 30.10.2026 · back-test since 01/2021

A bullish Bollinger squeeze occurs when the Bollinger Bands narrow to an unusually tight range and price then breaks out above the upper band region. Volatility compression resolves into an upward expansion. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 48 of 100 comparable cases (6,867 occurrences).

Schematic chart of the bullish bollinger squeeze pattern

How does a bullish bollinger squeeze form?

Quiet markets follow loud ones: after weeks of shrinking daily ranges, the bands contract to a percentile-low width. The breakout direction is unknown during the squeeze. The signal exists only once price leaves the compression upward, ideally with volume returning.

How reliable is the bullish bollinger squeeze?

In chartval's historical back-test across 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the bullish bollinger squeeze reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 48 of 100 cases (6,867 occurrences evaluated since 01/2021; data as of 30.10.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.

All market phases48 of 100 · 6,867 cases
In an uptrend43 of 100 · 1,128 cases
In a downtrend46 of 100 · 431 cases
In a sideways market49 of 100 · 5,308 cases

Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.

How chartval detects the pattern

chartval measures band width against its own recent history (percentile-based rather than a fixed threshold) and confirms only fresh upward breakouts from a genuine squeeze. chartval scans 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.

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Note: All content on chartval is technical-analysis information, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading securities and crypto assets involves risk up to total loss. Past pattern statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.