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Bullish Bollinger Squeeze: definition and measured success rate
Data as of 31.07.2026 · back-test since 07/2019
A bullish Bollinger squeeze occurs when the Bollinger Bands narrow to an unusually tight range and price then breaks out above the upper band region. Volatility compression resolves into an upward expansion. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 53 of 100 comparable cases (6,747 occurrences).
How does a bullish bollinger squeeze form?
Quiet markets follow loud ones: after weeks of shrinking daily ranges, the bands contract to a percentile-low width. The breakout direction is unknown during the squeeze — the signal exists only once price leaves the compression upward, ideally with volume returning.
How reliable is the bullish bollinger squeeze?
In chartval's historical back-test across 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the bullish bollinger squeeze reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 53 of 100 cases (6,747 occurrences evaluated since 07/2019; data as of 31.07.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.
How chartval detects the pattern
chartval measures band width against its own recent history (percentile-based rather than a fixed threshold) and confirms only fresh upward breakouts from a genuine squeeze. chartval scans 274 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.
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