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Bull Flag: definition and measured success rate
Data as of 30.10.2026 · back-test since 01/2021
A bull flag is a continuation pattern in which a steep advance (the pole) is followed by a short, narrow consolidation (the flag). A break above the flag's high signals that the original advance is resuming. In chartval's back-test, it worked in 40 of 100 comparable cases (672 occurrences).
How does a bull flag form?
After a sharp rise, early buyers take profits while new buyers wait. The result is a quiet, slightly drifting range on falling volume. Because sellers cannot push price meaningfully lower, the pause resolves upward once price clears the flag's interim high.
How reliable is the bull flag?
In chartval's historical back-test across 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies, the bull flag reached a 5 percent move in the signal direction before a 5 percent counter-move in 40 of 100 cases (672 occurrences evaluated since 01/2021; data as of 30.10.2026). Past statistics are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Measurement: a case counts as a hit when price moved 5 percent in the signal direction before moving 5 percent against it, based on closing prices, within a maximum of 120 candles after the trigger.
How chartval detects the pattern
chartval requires a measurable pole, a proportionally small consolidation, and a fresh close above the flag high, then states entry, target and invalidation based on current volatility. chartval scans 283 stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies daily; every signal names an entry, a target and the level at which the setup is invalidated.
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